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The American People Don't Want Obamacare (and They Want It Less All the Time)
By: Jeffrey H. Anderson, Ph.D
11.30.2009

In the last two weeks, eight national polls have been released showing what the American people think of Obamacare.  The results of those eight polls — Pew, ABC/WaPo, PPP, CNN, CBS, Quinnipiac, Fox, and Rasmussen — show that by an average margin of 8.5 percent (49.0 percent to 40.5 percent), more people oppose Obamacare than support it.  That's greater than the margin by which John McCain lost last November.  If you drop the high and low polls, the margin is greater still, as half of the eight polls show Obamacare facing a double-digit deficit.
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Another Victim of Medicaid (And Employer Benefits)
By: John R. Graham
11.29.2009

Nicholas D. Kristof has pretty much shoved Prof. Paul Krugman aside as the News York Times’ leading advocate of government-centered medicine. He seems deliberately not to see that government has created the problems of fragmented coverage, by using the tax code to give employers unfair advantage over employees in acquiring coverage. In today’s column, he parrots a discredited study, which asserts that 45,000 Americans die from lack of insurances (which is already debunked, along with the entire literature on “mortality due to insurance” here).
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New Yorker Would Have Done Better With Individual Insurance To Start
By: John R. Graham
11.28.2009

Yesterday’s Wall Street Journal ran a letter by a New Yorker, who was appalled at a contributor’s criticism of New York’s regulation of health insurance. As discussed frequently in this blog, NY imposes guaranteed issue and community rating on individually purchased health insurance. These rules allow people to wait until they become sick to buy health insurance.
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Must... Stop... Reading... Blogs... on... ClimateGate
By: Carol Aregger
11.27.2009

OK I really need to get back to my paying jobs... But here are two more ClimateGate posts to throw into the mix. (Both links come from ClimateDepot, which admittedly is the Drudge Report of global warming skepticism.)
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Cutting Medicare Benefits Will Not Protect Taxpayers
By: John R. Graham
11.25.2009

The ruling faction has convinced the media that the health-care take-over will actually reduce the deficit. It's all nonsense of course: Spending will be much greater than reported by the majority's media enablers, and the people are not fooled. Almost three quarters of Americans believe that the health-care take-over will increase the deficit (question #26).
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What the Health-Care Debate Is Really All About
By: Jeffrey H. Anderson, Ph.D
11.24.2009

In the New York Times, David Brooks writes as if it's more or less equally problematic to reject or enact Obamacare, and the decision is largely a matter of personal taste. He writes:

The bottom line is that we face a brutal choice.

Reform would make us a more decent society, but also a less vibrant one. It would ease the anxiety of millions at the cost of future growth. It would heal a wound in the social fabric while piling another expensive and untouchable promise on top of the many such promises we’ve already made. America would be a less youthful, ragged and unforgiving nation, and a more middle-aged, civilized and sedate one.

We all have to decide what we want at this moment in history, vitality or security. We can debate this or that provision, but where we come down will depend on that moral preference. Don’t get stupefied by technical details. This debate is about values.

There are elements of truth in Brooks's words, and he's right that this debate is about values. But it's not about decency versus vibrancy, about easing anxiety versus promoting growth. 


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A Cool $3.5 Trillion
By: Jeffrey H. Anderson, Ph.D
11.24.2009

Sen. Harry Reid and Co. are trying mightily to mask the costs of the massive health-care overhaul they are proposing. This chart hows exactly how deceptive they're trying to be. Clearly, the period that the Democrats like to call the "first ten years" of the bill bears little to no resemblance to the costs that the American people would face over the long haul.
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Support for School Choice is Strong in Virginia
By: Vicki E. Murray, Ph.D
11.24.2009

A just-released survey finds majority of Virginians want more school choices-even though most of them believe their traditional public schooling system is good. Survey responses indicate:

  • 40% of parents said they would choose a regular public school for their child, but about 90% of Virginia's enrolled K-12 students attend regular public schools.
  • 39% of K-12 parents say they would like to send their child to a private school, but only 9% of Virginia's K-12 students attend private schools.
  • 11% of Virginia parents prefer to homeschool their child, but less than 2% of Virginia children are homeschooled.
  • 8% of parents say they would like to send their child to a charter school; however, there are only three charter schools in operation in Virginia, serving approximately 190 students.

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Good News
By: Jeffrey H. Anderson, Ph.D
11.24.2009

As Tevi Troy mentioned mentioned, a Rasmussen poll released yesterday shows Americans opposing Obamacare by the colossal and surprising margin of 18 points: 56 percent to 38 percent.

To put this 18-point gap between Obamacare's opponents and its supporters into perspective, it's the same margin by which Ronald Reagan beat Walter Mondale, the same margin by which FDR beat Herbert Hoover, and two and a half times the margin by which Barack Obama beat John McCain. Obamacare appears to be gaining water fast.
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More on the Grinding Pace of the Health-Care Take-Over
By: John R. Graham
11.23.2009

Having already determined that it's absolutely untrue that Republicans opposed the 1965 Social Security amendments that created Medicare and Medicaid, I decided to dig a little deeper into the history books and find out what happened in 1935 when Congress enacted Social Security.
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Democratic Senators Should Read the Polls
By: Jeffrey H. Anderson, Ph.D
11.20.2009

As late as June 11, by margin of two-to-one and a gap of 31 percent (62 percent to 31 percent), Americans approved of the job that President Obama was doing, according to a Fox News poll released that day. Now, a new Fox News poll released just yesterday shows that this 2:1, 31-percent margin has dropped all the way into a dead heat (46 percent to 46 percent). And among independents, that gap has moved from +40 (66 percent to 26 percent) to -17 (34 percent to 51 percent).
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Health Insurance Rates Soar in Oregon
By: John R. Graham
11.20.2009

Oregon’s insurance regulator has approved premium hikes ranging from 9% to 23% in the individual and small-group markets. The media, of course, blame bonuses paid to plans’ senior executives for the hikes.

That’s unlikely: Top execs’ total compensation ranged from $248,000 to $765,000 last year.  These are utterly trivial “causes” of health-insurance premiums.

The Oregon Insurance Division (which approves all rate hikes), notes that plans’ surpluses have consistently been about 1% of revenues.  Obviously, medical spending is driving premiums, not the other way around.
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Republicans Can't Afford to Parrot the Democrats' False Numbers
By: Jeffrey H. Anderson, Ph.D
11.20.2009

So far, Republicans are using the numbers that the Democrats want them to use for the taxes and Medicare cuts imposed by Senator Reid's new bill.

The Democrats want everyone to quote figures from 2010 to 2019, even though only 1 percent of the bill's "ten year" costs would hit in the first four years of that period, while 99 percent would hit in the last six.

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The Audacity of Senator Reid’s Health-Care Bill
By: Sally C. Pipes
11.20.2009

During the 2008 election campaign, Barack Obama’s book The Audacity of Hope was often mentioned. A year after his election to the presidency, Obama continues to push on his number-one domestic-policy issue — affordable, accessible, high-quality health care for all Americans. Under his vision of achieving universal coverage while reducing health-care costs, he touts a plan that he says would cost about $900 billion over 10 years and be deficit-neutral. His goal — a bill on his desk by the end of this year.
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The Best Defense Is a Good Offense
By: Jeffrey H. Anderson, Ph.D
11.19.2009

As my piece published this morning by the New York Post details, only 1 percent of the costs of Senator Reid's new bill would kick in until the fifth year of its alleged "first ten years." Starting in 2014, 99 percent of the bill's costs would hit, meaning that its real first ten years are from 2014 to 2023. 

In that real first decade, the CBO reports that the bill would cost $1.8 trillion, raise Americans' taxes by $892 billion, siphon $802 billion out of Medicare, and — if doctors' pay under Medicare isn't really cut by 23 percent and never raised back up — would increase our deficits by $286 billion.
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Only the Sick Need Apply
By: Benjamin Zycher, Ph.D
11.19.2009

A friend pointed me to the following language in the CBO analysis (page 9) of the Reid bill: "CBO's assessment is that a public plan paying negotiated rates would attract a broad network of providers but would typically have premiums that were somewhat higher than the average premiums for the private plans in the exchanges" (emphasis added). This presumably is because the public plan would have to be self-financing, just like any old insurance company, depending (I assume) only on some seed money from the rest of the federal government.
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Ohio To Destroy Access to Individual Health Insurance?
By: John R. Graham
11.19.2009

I just got back from speaking in Columbus, OH, where I learned that the state’s recently passed budget includes health “insurance” reforms that make it illegal for health insurers to price actuarial risk accurately.

As of January 1, 2010, insurers in the individual market will be forced to offer open enrolment to people with any pre-existing condition, including cancer.  Over time, the new law will force the insurer to charge the sickest new applicant no more than 1.5 times the premium of the healthiest beneficiary of the same age and gender.

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Americans Like Obamacare About as Much as Hillarycare
By: Jeffrey H. Anderson, Ph.D
11.17.2009

Here are some highlights from the new Washington Post/ABC News poll released today. This poll is generally among the most liberal-leaning, and yet there would still be plenty to be concerned about if one were a swing-state Democratic senator flirting with voting for Obamacare. 

According to the poll, not only do more people disapprove, rather than approve, of the way President Obama is handling health care and the federal deficit, but more than 40 percent strongly disapprove of his performance on these issues (41 and 43 percent, respectively, compared to only 28 and 19 percent who strongly approve).
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Bending the Cost-Curve and the Truth
By: Jeffrey H. Anderson, Ph.D
11.16.2009

After months of hearing President Obama talk about the need to "bend the curve" on rising health costs, the Office of the Chief Actuary at the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) has issued a thorough review of the House health bill. Its verdict? The bill would in fact bend the cost-curve. It would bend it upward.
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The CBO Is Using the Wrong Number of Uninsured
By: Jeffrey H. Anderson, Ph.D
11.13.2009

By all accounts, the Congressional Budget Office is using the Census Bureau's tallies for the number of uninsured, but the CBO doesn't appear to have read the full Census report. In the very same document in which the now-famous number of 46 million uninsured appears, the Census admits that this number includes roughly 9 million people on Medicaid who were falsely recorded as uninsured. The CBO is not adjusting for this Medicaid undercount. Therefore, the CBO is inflating the number of uninsured — by about 20 percent.
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Federal Medicaid Funds Addictive Like Hard Drugs
By: John R. Graham
11.12.2009

Congress created Medicaid in 1965, to fund states’ health-care programs for low-income residents.  The original formula was a minimum 50/50 split between state and federal funding.  However, states with more low-income residents were supposed to receive higher federal transfer payments.  (It didn’t quite work out that way.  Actually, states that were ready, willing, and able to ratchet up state taxes and spending were able to pull down more federal dollars.  See measurement no. 4, “Medicaid Freeloading”, in the U.S. Index of Health Ownership, 3rd ed., p. 18.)
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Collective Neurosis in Maine: Big Government Bad, We Need Gargantuan Government
By: John R. Graham
11.11.2009

Gardiner Harris of the New York Times has a balanced feature on Maine’s experience with so-called “universal” health care.  It even cites the Maine Heritage Policy Center’s Tarren R. Bragdon, whose research should have long convinced anybody that government attempts to impose “universal” health coverage are a sure-fire recipe for spiralling costs and reduced coverage.


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When Private Insurers Are No Longer Private
By: Jeffrey H. Anderson, Ph.D
11.11.2009

Here's further evidence that Obamacare would contain a little something for everyone — except for the American people who would have to finance it and live under it. More exactly stated, it would contain something for every lobbyist under the sun. It turns out that when government becomes more involved in health care, lobbying becomes more, rather than less, important.
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On the Grinding Pace of the Health-Care Take-Over: A Historical Perspective
By: John R. Graham
11.10.2009

I'm not a Republican, but some of my best friends are, so I though I'd investigate the claim that Republicans opposed the creation of Medicare and Medicaid. Well, what do you know: It's not true. A narrow majority of Republicans in the House voted in favor of the 1965 Social Security amendments, as did almost half of those in the Senate. (Whether they should have opposed it is another question for another day.)
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PhRMA Is Shocked About GosHealth
By: Benjamin Zycher, Ph.D
11.9.2009

Make that shocked, shocked. "We are disappointed . . . by today's vote," PhRMA said in a statement following Saturday's House health-care vote. "While well intentioned [!], the bill . . . would have the unintended consequences [sic] of killing tens of thousands of jobs in our industry . . ."

As I have argued before, it just doesn't get any stupider than this. Having made an unenforceable $80 billion deal with the White House, having spent upwards of $130 million on advertising in favor of health-care socialism, having been blind all this time to the reality that they are in an ideological battle in which the Left has painted a bullseye on them: PhRMA now just cannot believe that the Beltway Left would view them as both a piggy bank and an obstacle blocking their fundamental goal of centralizing health care, health-care research, and health-care lobbying in the vast monster soon to be known as GosHealth.
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Enemies of the People
By: Benjamin Zycher, Ph.D
11.9.2009

It's official. The Joint Tax Committee informs us that under the terms of the Pelosi health-care bill, "Americans who do not maintain acceptable health insurance coverage and who choose not to pay the bill's new individual mandate tax (generally 2.5% of income), are subject to numerous civil and criminal penalties, including criminal fines of up to $250,000 and imprisonment of up to five years."
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On the 'Sacredness' of Government Health Care
By: John R. Graham
11.9.2009

Over on Meet the Press, both E. J. Dionne and David Brooks assert that, once the government takes over citizens' access to medical services, the new status quo becomes "sacred." Robert Costa believes that Americans won't fall for it.

But foreigners haven't really fallen for it either, despite the claims of British Tory leader David Cameron. In the latest Commonwealth Fund survey of people in eight developed countries, well over half the respondents stated either that "there are some good things in our health-care system, but fundamental changes are needed to make it work better"; or that "our health-care system has so much wrong with it."  Furthermore, as the indispensible Greg Scandlen noted after the Commonwealth Fund's 2008 report, the trend of opinion since 1988 has been worse in other countries than the U.S.
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Obama-Ed "Reforms" are Old News
By: Vicki E. Murray, Ph.D
11.9.2009

On November 4 President Obama and Secretary of Education Arne Duncan visited Wright Middle School in Madison, Wisconsin to discuss what the White House is calling "one of the most exciting and innovative initiatives in education reform history." The president explained, "In some cases, people have seen schools as sort of a political spoil having to do with jobs and contracts instead of what we're teaching kids. And this status quo has held back our children, it's held back our economy, and it's held back our country for too long."
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Chalk Another One Up for Charter Schools
By: Vicki E. Murray, Ph.D
11.9.2009

"Opponents of school choice are running out of excuses as evidence continues to roll in about the positive impact of charter schools," declared the Wall Street Journal last week.

In recent months research has shown that charter schools benefit their own students as well as students in surrounding traditional public schools. Low-income NYC students attending charter schools from kindergarten through 8th grade can nearly close achievement gaps with their peers in the affluent suburbs, 86 percent of the reading gap and 66 percent of the math gap.


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What Would Yogi Say?
By: Sally C. Pipes
11.8.2009

That great American forecaster Yogi Berra would say "the ball game is not over till it's over."  On Saturday night, the House voted to pass HR 3962 by a vote of 220 to 215, a narrow two-vote margin.  On Saturday morning, the president gave a pep talk to Democratic members of the House.  He followed that with a short address from the White House garden.  He reiterated how important it was to have a landmark health-care bill passed by the end of this year.  The plan that he has touted and that he supports would cost $900 billion over 10 years and be deficit neutral.  It is unclear how the House or the Senate bills will be able to reduce health care spending and at the same time reduce the number of uninsured.
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Mutiny in Scrutiny?
By: Jeffrey H. Anderson, Ph.D
11.8.2009

It was always clear that the real health-care battle would be in the Senate.  But what would have been shocking eight months ago is to hear that it would take until November for the Democrats to pass a bill even in the House.  It would have been even more shocking to have heard that, even after a full-court-press by the White House, the bill would pass by only five votes — meaning that if just three of the 435 members had changed their minds, it would have changed the bill's fate.  And it would have been shocking to have heard that 39 Democrats would jump ship.
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Stupak Amendment
By: Benjamin Zycher, Ph.D
11.7.2009

Call me simpleminded, but the GOP argument in favor of the Stupak amendment, as summarized here by Robert Costa, makes little sense to me.
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Security and Stability
By: Sally C. Pipes
11.7.2009

The president spoke from the Rose Garden this afternoon reiterating how important it is for the House to pass this landmark health-care-reform bill, HR3962. It is expected that the vote will take place tonight or tomorrow. It is clear that no Republican will support this proposed legislation.
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The AMA Is More a Monopoly in Crisis Than a Professional Association
By: John R. Graham
11.6.2009

The government's media collaborators went hog-wild when the American Medical Association and AARP endorsed the House's health-reform bill(s). The media continue to insist that these organizations lobby for doctors and seniors, which is not the case. Grace-Marie Turner notes that AARP earns a significant fraction of its revenues by endorsing private-health insurance policies that supplement Medicare. Called Medigap policies, they will likely benefit if the government rolls back another line of business, called Medicare Advantage.
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The AMA and AARP Don’t Speak for Doctors and Seniors
By: Jeffrey H. Anderson, Ph.D
11.6.2009

In the wake of endorsements of the House health bill by the American Medical Association (AMA) and the AARP, President Obama greeted the White House press corps and explained the AARP’s motivation:

“They're endorsing this bill because they know it will strengthen Medicare, not jeopardize it. They know it will protect the benefits our seniors receive, not cut them. So I want everybody to remember that the next time you hear the same tired arguments to the contrary from the insurance companies and their lobbyists. And remember this endorsement the next time you see a bunch of misleading ads on television.”


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