by Lance T. Izumi, Fellow in California Studies
Pacific Research Institute
December 14, 1999

Announcer lead: Time for Perspectives. Lance Izumi says that SAT exam is a good predictor of student success in college.

Over this past year, there's been a loud drumbeat to de-emphasize the SAT exam, which is used by most colleges and universities to help determine admissions. The U.S. Department of Education has issued a draft guideline saying that colleges should rethink their use of the SAT if it adversely impacts minority admissions. Here in California, Gov. Gray Davis successfully pushed the UC Regents to admit pools of high-school students on grades alone. Why all this effort against the SAT, and is it justified?

One reason for the SAT backlash is that falling SAT scores embarrass many educators and politicians. After years of government-sponsored education reforms, SAT scores in California are well below what they were several decades ago. Also, the SAT scores of African-American and Latino students in California are way below the state and national averages. In response, many claim that the SAT is biased and should be eliminated.

Studies, however, show that the SAT is an effective tool in predicting students' success in college. One massive study found that the SAT is a better predictor of college success than high-school grades alone. The study also found that the SAT predicts a slightly higher college GPA for minority students than they actually earn.

Eliminating the SAT would also result in unintended consequences. A University of California study found that if the SAT were eliminated, the UC would have to raise their standard high-school GPA for admissions. Under such a scenario, the eligibility rate of African-American students would fall significantly.

What prevents many minority students from entering the UC system isn't the SAT, but their failure to complete required core courses while in high school. In 1997, approximately three-quarters of African-American and Latino high-schoolers in California had not completed these courses.

If we want to see more minority students going to top universities, we need to increase the rigor of the education they are receiving in our public schools. Eliminating the SAT would just mask the real problem.

With a perspective, I'm Lance Izumi.