WASHINGTON, DC - Gray Davis's political career isn't the only thing circling the drain this week. Remember the Kyoto protocol on global warming? Russia is about to flush it.

Ever since President Bush decided to withdraw the U.S. from the unratified (and unratifiable) treaty, environmentalists have been scheming to drag the U.S. into Kyoto through the back door. If one more "Annex 1" nation ratifies the treaty, it will go into effect among the nations that have already signed on. The requirements of the treaty would then begin having an effect on American companies doing business in Europe and other Kyoto-conforming countries. This, the greens hoped and expected, would increase pressure on business here in the U.S. to get with the program.

Russia was expected to be the country that would provide the last needed ratification. Last week the Russians said "nyet." It is supposed that Russia is only hesitating to ratify the treaty so that it can, in effect, loot the treasuries of European nations. Russia says it wants guarantees that other Kyoto-conforming countries will buy billions of dollars in emissions credits that Russia will have available to sell in an emissions trading scheme. The Russian stick-up is yet another example of how poorly conceived the entire Kyoto enterprise is.

The Kyoto protocol set 1990 as the baseline year for greenhouse gas emissions, and set a 10-percent reduction below 1990 levels by the years 2010-2012 as the target. In 1990, the Soviet Union was still in business, and its inefficient industry belching huge amounts of everything out its smokestacks. But between the post-Communist contraction and the coming of privatization, Russia's emissions are already far below 1990 levels, giving them huge credits on emissions reduction they can sell to other nations through emissions trading.

In other words, Russia wants to be guaranteed a windfall for doing nothing. But there may be more to the story here than just a stick up.

Russia may have made the calculation that, as a rising fossil fuel producer, it may have more of a long-term future as an energy exporter than seller of emission credits to Germany and France. Indeed its rising oil industry is opposing ratification of Kyoto. And then there is this from President Vladimir Putin: "Here in Russia you can often hear people say-sometimes jokingly, sometimes seriously - that Russia is a northern country, so if it warms up two or three degrees it's not terrible. It might even be good-we'd spend less money on fur coats and other warm things."

Separately some Russian scientists have echoed the idea that a cold country might benefit from warming, and have also expressed doubts about the underlying science of climate change.

Russia may yet ratify, if given enough pledges of cash from Europe. Whether Europe will come through with firm cash pledges is doubtful, but it is a test of the seriousness of their commitment to Kyoto. I'm betting they won't satisfy Russia's demands. That sound you will hear won't be just Siberian tundra ice cracking. It will be the collapse of the green house of cards.

Steven Hayward is a senior fellow at the Pacific Research Institute in San Francisco and the author of The Age of Reagan--The Fall of the Old Liberal Order, 1964-1980. He can be reached via email at hayward@pacificresearch.org.