Sacramento, CA -- For a number of years now, the Pacific Research Institute (PRI) has been concerned about the reliability and validity of the state dropout figures issued by the California Department of Education (CDE).
In PRI’s California Index of Leading Education Indicators, we noted that from 1986 to 1995, CDE figures showed the dropout rate falling from 25 percent to 13.5 percent. The Index noted, however, that under the CDE method of calculating the dropout rate, tens of thousands of students who dropped out of school were never counted as dropouts. Indeed, if one compared the number of students in California who enrolled in the ninth grade with the number of students graduating from high school four years later (the graduation rate), one would find that approximately one third of those ninth graders never graduated.

A devastating article in the Sacramento Bee now provides support for PRI’s research. According to Bee
reporter Deb Kollars, "In 1993 there were 406,551 ninth-graders in California public schools. Four years
later, in the spring of 1997, there were only 269,071 public school graduates -- a loss of 137,480 girls and
boys [for a graduation rate of 66 percent, and an attrition rate of 34 percent]. At that rate, this
fall’s estimated ninth-grade enrollment of 460,000 students may be whittled down to about 305,000
graduates four years from now -- a likely loss of as many as 155,000 graduates. In contrast, using the
state’s official dropout rate, about 60,000 are expected to not graduate with their peers. That’s a
difference of about 95,000 kids."

Why the huge discrepancy? A key reason is that local schools often under-report to the state the number of
dropouts by claiming that some dropouts move out of state or go on to community colleges without a
high-school diploma, while others eventually earn a high-school diploma or some equivalent through
independent study, adult education, or continuation school. However, according to Placer County education
official Tad Kitada, that’s an overly optimistic assumption. For instance, says Mr. Kitada, "A student
may be transferred to a continuation school and the regular school sends his transcripts, but the student
never shows up and he’s never counted as a dropout." Despite the seriousness of the underreporting problem,
the state does not audit dropout figures put out by local schools.

Even if one accepts the argument that some students move away or go on to earn a high-school diploma
through some alternate route, the numbers still don’t add up. According to Ms. Kollars, these explanations
still are not enough to account for the majority of students who don’t graduate and never earn a
high-school diploma.

In PRI’s Index, we observed that the real indicator of whether students stay in school and complete their
education should be the graduation and attrition rates. The experts cited in Ms. Kollars’ article agree. The
bottom line is that only when people receive accurate information can they judge the true performance of the
public education system and demand real reforms such as school choice.

-- Lance T. Izumi