CAMBRIA, CA - Twelve-step programs are all the rage in America these days, and it is high time that a 12-step
program be started to cure the cliches of urban sprawl. Call it "Sprawlmongers Anony-mous." New members can
introduce themselves with the greeting, "Hi, I’m Al, and I live in the suburbs."

As every connoisseur of 12-step programs knows, the first step is admitting you have a problem. And the
first big step was taken recently when the federal government admitted that its alarmist numbers about the
rate of development released last fall are in error. These bogus numbers were put out in the National
Resources Inventory, the report on land use produced every five years by the federal Department of
Agriculture. Usually this report comes out quietly, but last year it made front-page headlines because Vice
President Gore decided to call a press confer-ence, saying the NRI numbers "confirm what com-munities
across America already know. Too much of our precious open space is being gobbled up by sprawl." The rate of
development had supposedly doubled to more than three million acres a year from 1992 to 1997. Actually, it
hadn’t.

Faithful followers of Pacific Research will know that we blew the whistle days after the NRI numbers came
out, pointing out obvious anomalies, and showing that the NRI figures don’t harmonize with other federal data
sets. Well, in April the Department of Agriculture quietly announced that a "computer error" had been
discovered, requiring them to withdraw the NRI and recalculate the entire study. The results are supposed
to be available in June. The changes could be "substantial." "All the numbers will change," said the
director of the NRI.

Needless to say, the Vice President hasn’t called a press conference, or joined Sprawlmongers Anonymous,
to admit that the numbers are wrong, and we doubt he’ll hold a press conference when the revised, and
undoubtedly lower, numbers are released next month. The media has naturally lagged, too, though a few notable exceptions deserve mention.

The Richmond (Virginia) Times-Dispatch ran a good story, and the Philadelphia Inquirer ran a news story
and an editorial entitled "Oops." "Anyone know a tasty recipe for eating crow?", the editorial asked. The
Detroit News suggested that Congress should hold hearings to find out how the mistake was made. For the
most part, though, the people who trumpeted the NRI results last fall are now saying that they weren’t all
that important in the first place. That’s what veteran 12-steppers call "denial." Mean-while, another basic
aspect of this controversy is the effect growth controls have on housing prices.

Anyone who has been to a meeting of "Economists Anonymous" knows that when you restrict the supply of
something, the price goes up. But many advocates of "smart growth" are in denial about this, too. So it
came as a welcome sign when USA Today last week carried a story with the head-line, "When Growth Gets
Limited, So Does Housing," explaining what aspiring home buyers already know too well, that landuse
controls send housing prices soaring.

There is still a long way to go to get through all 12-steps of the rigorous Sprawlmongers Anonymous
program, but these two episodes represent a decent beginning.

-Steven Hayward