First, despite what President Obama said in Prop. 50 commercials, its passage does not protect the independent redistricting commission in any way. By enacting Prop. 50, voters have done away with the independent commission’s work for the rest of this decade.
Remember that California stands to lose two more congressional seats in the 2030 reapportionment. Democrats aren’t going to say, “but we gave our word to voters in 2025!” and lose four to six seats after the 2032 election. Given that the congressional majority is only a handful seats, losing four to six seats could be enough to change the House majority from one party to the other.
Mark my words – as we approach 2030 and the next census, Democrats will find some excuse to try and gerrymander California again or repeal the independent commission altogether.
Sen. Adam Schiff, D-California, has as much as admitted this.
When asked whether Prop. 50 was temporary, he said, “yes, the only caveat being if a president like Donald Trump goes through this exercise again.”
Expect an “if” to materialize in 2031.
Second, now that Prop. 50 has passed, the action shifts from to the courtroom.
Lawsuits are being drafted and filed as you read this blog post.
We can’t predict the length or outcome of court cases. Looking at redistricting challenges in other states, a resolution could be a long time coming. Legal challenges drag well into 2026 and past the candidate filing deadline. Courts may have to decide which lines will be in place for the 2026 elections.
Consider a current case challenging North Dakota’s state legislative district lines. The U.S. Supreme Court ruled in July that current maps will remain as the case is being heard. Expect Prop. 50 opponents to file similar petitions to try and keep the independent commission’s lines on the books for the 2026 election as legal challenges to Prop. 50 proceed.
Also on the legal front, the Supreme Court recently heard a case challenging whether states must continue to follow the Voting Rights Act in redistricting. A favorable ruling could empower several states to redraw their lines again. Depending on the timing of a ruling, this could mean 19 more seats nationally drawn in favor of Republicans election experts say, according to an analysis reported in Politico.
Finally, Democrats won’t win as many seats as they are hoping for under the new maps.
Analysis from The Ballot Book shows what could be in store. Yes, some GOP incumbents will have no chance to compete under the new lines. For example, Rep. Doug LaMalfa faces extraordinarily long odds as his district shifts from a Trump +24.9 percent district to a Harris + 12.6 percent one.
But Republicans have a fighting chance to win in many other districts thought to be sure Democrat wins when the new maps were initially released. Consider Congressional District 3 in the Sacramento area, represented by Rep. Kevin Kiley. It shifts from a Trump + 3.8 percent district to a Harris + 10.2 percent seat. But if you look at the results in the last midterm elections in 2022, Gavin Newsom only had a +1.9 percent advantage, showing that Kiley could have a fighting chance in this seat in 2026.
Same goes for Rep. Adam Gray’s Congressional District 13 in the Central Valley. It shifts from a Dahle +7 percent seat to a Dahle +2.6 percent seat – another extremely competitive seat. Rep. David Valadao’s perpetual battleground District 22 remains so, going from a Dahle +4.3 percent district to a Dahle +1.6 percent seat.
Remember that maps are just lines on paper. They only come to life when people vote. District lines may give one party or the other an advantage on paper. But candidates still must go out and make their case to voters. Ultimately, that will be the key to who wins or loses under California’s new district lines.
Tim Anaya is the Pacific Research Institute’s vice president of marketing and communications and co-author of The California Left Coast Survivor’s Guide.
