It’s been a difficult re-election campaign for Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass to say the least.
Now comes word that, despite holding narrow yet unimpressive leads in the primary election and public opinion polling throughout the campaign to date, Bass is now trailing Democratic socialist challenger Nithya Raman by 11 percent in the latest Los Angeles Times/UC Berkeley IGS survey.
This begs the question – why is Bass suddenly trailing by a significant margin? Some of it is due to bad policies. Most of it, in my view, is due to basic competence.
Certainly Bass’ re-election prospects dimmed considerably given her ill-fated trip to Ghana on the first day of the Southern California wildfires in 2025, and her disastrous “stare seen around the world” interview upon her return.
But a lot of the criticism of Bass can be explained by one of my favorite lines from TV’s Judge Judy – “don’t pee on my leg and tell me it’s raining.”
After their homes burned down, thousands of Angelenos wanted to rebuild their homes quickly. Bass said she was helping to streamline the process by creating a “one-stop” rebuilding center.
It sounded great – until homeowners discovered that the one stop included representatives from thirteen different government entities. Only in California would putting thirteen different bureaucrats in the same room be considered “streamlining” government.
It goes beyond the wildfires.
People see Bass and her team spending $1.3 billion or more annually on her administration’s homelessness programs.
Yet figures from the LA’s latest point-in-time homeless count show homelessness citywide rising 3.4 percent, and 7.9 percent among people living outdoors or in their vehicles – while the city controller’s office called it “a sluggish, inefficient approach” to homeless spending.
Congress has recently questioned whether Bass is spending federal homeless dollars sent to the city effectively – and whether the city is losing money to fraud. Bass has refused to testify.
That’s a competence problem; it’s also a freedom problem.
The same government that has trouble clearing brush to prevent a future wildfire, can’t seem to refill a local reservoir so there is an emergency water supply to run fire hydrants (the Santa Ynez Reservoir is still empty, though may be back online by the end of the year), and or help speed up rebuilding still has plenty of time to dictate what kind of house you should live in, what kind of appliance you cook with, or what kind of car you should drive.
Voter frustration with misguided priorities and lack of competence fueled Spencer Pratt’s upstart though ultimately unsuccessful June primary campaign for mayor. And it’s fueling Raman today.
She’s benefitting from being the person running against Bass. In the LA Times/UC Berkeley poll, Bass is winning most Pratt voters (though 63 percent are undecided). Meanwhile, 13 percent of her June supporters are now voting for Raman and another 24 percent are undecided. All are bad signs for the incumbent.
To be fair, virtually any name on the ballot against Bass (though probably not a Republican like Pratt) would be leading today given city voters’ displeasure with her leadership.
Even in deep blue Los Angeles, voter frustration with bureaucracy and government performance can create an audience for a very different message. Let people rebuild. Make government work. Get unnecessary bureaucracy out of the way.
Voters are judging Bass by what they can see with their own eyes. And they are asking a key question – after all that spending and regulating, does government actually work?
Bass’ poor re-election poll numbers coupled with Raman’s rise in the polls makes it clear that voters are quickly forming a judgement on that question and it’s not a good one for the incumbent.
Tim Anaya is the Pacific Research Institute’s vice president of marketing and communications and the co-author of The California Left Coast Survivor’s Guide.