California is barreling toward its 2030 greenhouse gas emissions target. Will it make it? The Legislative Analyst’s Office doesn’t seem to think so.
By statute, emissions are to be at 40 percent of 1990 levels by 2030, then 85 percent below by 2045. The California Air Resources Board recently set a more ambitious goal — 48 percent of 1990 levels by 2030. Its latest scoping plan, updated every five years, has a few holes in it, though.
Based on the findings of a just-released brief from the nonpartisan Legislative Analyst’s office, it’s no great leap to infer that CARB believes it can wish its climate aspirations into existence. The plan fails to “identify which specific policies it will implement,” leaving CARB to assume that “estimated reductions” will be reached “without specifying how those assumed outcomes might be achieved.”
Maybe the state will rely on financial incentives to reach its emissions goals. Or it could focus on sector specific regulatory programs. It’s possible the cap and trade program will be the primary tool, though not likely since it’s “not currently positioned to ensure the state meets” the demands set forth by lawmakers, says the LAO.