“The exodus from California is real, troubling, and has become too large to ignore.”
That was the message of “California Migrating,” PRI’s report in 2021 on the mass migration of Californians to other states.
The trend has not abated since. From 2020 to 2025, California lost nearly 1.7 million more people due to net domestic migration – meaning that more Americans moved out than in. And this exodus was widespread – 44 of California’s 58 counties were on the losing end.
That is real, and troubling. But there is a tiny silver lining. Census data show that 14 of California’s counties had net gains in population over the past five years.
Understanding why would be a good idea. As the 2021 report noted, the consequences of the California exodus “are dire” and “understanding the drivers of the exodus is essential.”
So, what did those 14 winning counties have in common? What did they do right? What can they teach the rest of the state about drawing people in?
Is it location?
That doesn’t seem to be the case, since none of the 14 counties is on the ocean. And while several are close to Sacramento, the rest are scattered. (See the nearby map.)
Is it rural vs. urban?
While many have small populations, not all of them do. The biggest net population gainer was Riverside County, which is the fourth-largest county in the state. San Joaquin is the 14th largest. Plus, several small counties lost population. Siskiyou County (population 43,466) lost nearly 800 to net migration, while Amador County, population (41,428), gained more than 2,400.
Is it an age thing?
Doesn’t seem to be. Nearly half of the migration winners have median ages that are below the state median, the others above – and the range goes from Merced’s 31.8 years old to Trinity’s 54.9.
Are these counties economic dynamos?
That also doesn’t seem to be the case, given that the unemployment rate varies from 4.3% in Placer County to Merced’s 10.9%. And half have poverty rates above the overall state rate.
Are they education powerhouses?
Not really. In fact, six of the 14 counties have high school dropout rates above the state average.
Safer?
Rates of violent crime vary widely. Amador County’s violent crime rate is 48% below the state average. But in San Joaquin County, it’s 34% higher.
Healthier?
San Benito, Placer, and El Dorado showed up on a list of healthiest counties in the state. But Madera, Yuba, and Lake were among the unhealthiest.
Happier?
Only five scored in the top half of Gallup’s “happiness score.” Placer County came in third, but Lake County came in last.
Is there anything they share in common? We did find one thing when we looked at measures of affordability.
- These aren’t rich counties. In fact, every one of them has a median family income that is below the state median.
- Housing costs were below the state median in all of them. In some cases, well below, ranging from -5.9% in San Benito County to -86.1% in Trinity County. Housing costs in Riverside County are 22% below the state median.
- All but four had a “renters’ affordability index” below the state average.
- All but two had gas prices below the overall state average.
- They all had property crime rates below the state average.
As PRI’s latest Free Cities booklet notes, the Stockton area, which is located in San Joaquin County (net gain 6,034), “has been growing rapidly as Bay Area residents move there because of lower-priced real estate.”
These counties had one other thing in common. All but 2 of the 14 counties voted for Trump in the last election, and eight of them have voted Republican consistently for years. The second biggest net population gainer – Placer County (population 442,000 and rising) – hasn’t voted for a Democratic presidential candidate since 1976. The influx of people into San Joaquin County also helped flip it red in 2024.
Still, some California counties on the losing end of net migration had some of these factors in their favor as well. Several deep red counties lost population. San Bernardino’s housing cost is 41% below the state median, but it still lost 32,069 to net migration.
So, what is the magic mix?
As PRI’s follow-up study released last month, “California at a Crossroads,” notes: “If policymakers take the right steps, the California Dream will be real again.”
Policymakers who want to know what those steps are for the state would be wise to spend some time studying the counties that are winning. They must be doing something right.
John Merline is a veteran journalist who was editor of Consumers’ Research magazine, Washington bureau chief of Investor’s Business Daily, member of the editorial board of USA Today, and is currently publisher of Issues & Insights.
Note: Eight other counties saw their total population climb from 2020 to 2025, but their gains were entirely due to large influxes of immigrants, not because of net domestic migration. Sacramento County, for example, lost 43,473 to domestic migration, but had more than 52,000 immigrants move in there.