Gov. Gavin Newsom has spent years insisting California will end sales of new gasoline-powered cars in 2035. His successor might have other ideas.
When asked if the Newsom’s mandate was the “right goal,” Republican nominee Steve Hilton has said “of course” it “has to be dismantled.” This is exactly as expected.
Somewhat surprisingly, though, Democratic nominee Xavier Becerra said he could potentially pull back on the 2035 deadline.
During a recent Politico event, Becerra said meeting Newsom’s target, which is less than nine years off, and is opposed by two-thirds of the state’s adults and 65% of likely voters in a recent Public Policy Institute of California poll, is possible — but only under certain conditions.
“If we invest in it, it absolutely is feasible. If we don’t invest in the infrastructure, then it’s not feasible,” he said.
At the same time, Becerra said the state might even be able to “beat” 2035, “but we’ve got to do the investment.”
The former secretary of Health and Human Services left room, however, for accommodating “families who work really hard” but won’t be able to afford the transition to ZEVs.
“If they tell me, got to slow down a little bit, I will slow down. But if they tell me, hey, I’m with you ‘cause you made it more affordable for me, then we’re going to go.”
California is already trying to make electric vehicles more affordable with taxpayer-provided subsidies. Its new MyFirstEV program creates a $135 million fund that provides a $3,500 instant rebate on the sales of eligible new ZEVs to first-time buyers, with makers matching the rebate dollar for dollar. The program comes after the $7,500 federal tax credits for new EVs and plug-in hybrids expired last fall, and the state’s previous clean vehicle rebate closed in 2023.
But California’s continued need to subsidize EV purchases raises an obvious question: If consumers have to be paid to move toward Sacramento’s 2035 goal, is the mandate realistic in the first place? The same poll that found that only one in three California adults said they have seriously considered an electric vehicle the next time they buy or lease.
Yes, California leads the nation in EV registrations, with more than 1.8 million, according to the U.S. Energy Department. But taxpayers’ help was needed to reach that number.
Just before the federal subsidies expired on Sept. 30, 2025, there was a burst of deals. The more than 125,000 new ZEV registrations in the third quarter was a record. That was followed by a fourth quarter when new ZEV registrations reached only a little more than 79,000. There was a mild rebound in 2026’s second quarter when there were 86,857 new zero-emission vehicle purchases.
Sales also tailed off in response to the state shutting down its clean vehicle rebate in 2023.
Stillwater Associates, a transportation energy consulting firm, says the recent sales data show “that without sustained policy incentives, regulatory mandates, and ZEVs priced competitively outside the luxury segment,” the state will not hit the government’s target. Maybe Becerra should look at the sales figures and consider that he’s already being told to “slow down a little bit.”
But let’s say the state meets its 2035 objective after all, and sales of internal-combustion engine cars hit zero, as mandated. There’s still a problem. There won’t be enough energy to power the ZEV transition because the conversion to a fully carbon-free power grid is lagging. By 2045, the generation deficit compared to demand is projected to be about 21%, according to PRI’s research.
Becerra says he’ll listen if Californians tell him to “slow down a little bit.”
They’re already telling him. The polling says it. The sales numbers say it. And the enormous subsidies required to coax buyers into EVs say it.
The question isn’t whether California will eventually have more zero-emission vehicles. It will. The question is whether Sacramento will continue pretending politicians can dictate the timetable.
On that question, Becerra may already be putting some distance between himself and Newsom.
Kerry Jackson is the William Clement Fellow in California Reform at the Pacific Research Institute and co-author of the PRI book, The California Left Coast Survivor’s Guide.