Spending Watch

Budget Gimmicks Will Not Solve The State’s Fiscal Crisis Wayne Winegarden June 2025 It’s budget crunch time for Gov. Newsom and legislative leaders. The immediate problem is closing the estimated $12 billion budget shortfall for the FY2025-26 budget. Despite this serious fiscal challenge, the Governor’s budget proposal demonstrates an unseriousness ...

Covering Undocumented Immigrants Will Worsen The State’s Fiscal Crisis Wayne Winegarden May 2025 A previous Spending Watch analysis estimated the fiscal and economic impact of funding Medi-Cal benefits to undocumented immigrants. The analysis estimated that the expansion will require an additional $11.6 billion in expenditures, which will impose large economic ...

AB 4: A Bad Idea That Costs Too Much Wayne Winegarden and Nikhil Agarwal May 2025 As we noted in an earlier Spending Watch piece, growing economic volatility will likely cause revenue growth to be much weaker than expected for the upcoming FY2025-26 budget. It is, consequently, fiscally irresponsible for ...

The May Revision Should Assume A Weaker Fiscal Position for FY2025-26 Wayne Winegarden April 2025 The recently enacted tariffs are significant tax increases on consumption and production, as I discussed in a February 2025 PRI Issue Brief. These tariffs will increase costs for consumers and reduce profits for businesses both ...

SB 222 Will Weaken California’s Economy and Reduce State Revenues Wayne Winegarden and Nikhil Agarwal March 2025 The destructiveness of the Eaton and Palisades fires were unprecedented. According to the Anderson School of Management at UCLA, the recent Los Angeles wildfires caused up to $164 billion in property and capital ...

Backfilling Lost Federal Education Funding Will Cost California Dearly Wayne Winegarden February 2025 The erratic actions of the Trump Administration are undoubtedly making it more difficult for states to budget for the upcoming 2026 fiscal year. The knee-jerk reaction from many California politicians is to call for more taxes on ...

A More Effective Safety Net, Not A Basic Income, Will Help Lift People Out of Poverty Wayne Winegarden and Nikhil Agarwal December 2024 2024 was a good year for proponents of a universal basic income (UBI). Following the 2019 experiment in Stockton, UBI pilot programs are underway across cities in ...

While National Economic Performance Has Supported State Revenue Growth, Greater Spending Restraint Is Still Required Wayne Winegarden and Nikhil Agarwal November 2024 Three months into the 2024-25 fiscal year, state revenues are outperforming lowered expectations. Should these trends continue, the FY2025-26 budget process may avoid the crushing deficit problem that ...

The Governor’s Special Session Will Worsen Gasoline Affordability Wayne Winegarden and Kerry Jackson September 2024 The special session called by Governor Gavin Newsom is supposed to save Californians from price gasoline spikes. The governor wants to blame the price spikes on greedy corporations. His accusations are merely a diversion from ...

California’s Expensive but Ineffective Income Support Spending Wayne Winegarden August 2024 Including federal, state, and local funds, California’s per capita spending on income support programs is 81 percent higher than the average expenditures for all other states – per capita spending of $3,869 compared to $2,141. These expenditures include “cash ...