Spending Watch

Spending Watch: The Unpleasant Arithmetic of a California Wealth Tax Wayne Winegarden October 2025 A just proposed initiative to impose a one-time wealth tax on billionaires summarizes why California has fallen from the fourth to the fifth largest economy in the world. State policymakers continually view the private sector as ...

California’s FY2025-26 Budget Failed to Address the State’s Long-term Financial Risks Wayne Winegarden October 2025 Politicians too often assume that California’s fiscal health is synonymous with the state of its annual budget. When revenue growth is strong, the state is allegedly in a sound fiscal position. It is only when ...

Legislators Did Not Relieve California’s Energy Poverty Problem Wayne Winegarden September 2025 The legislative year is over and there is lots to be concerned about. Paramount among these concerns, the legislature passed several bills that will worsen the state’s energy affordability problems. Perhaps most disappointing, though not unexpected, legislators passed ...

An Irresponsible FY2025-26 Budget All but Ensures Future Fiscal Crises Wayne Winegarden July 2025 Another fiscal year, another lost opportunity. In a June 2025 Spending Watch analysis, I lamented that Newsom was relying on gimmicks to close the current $12 billion budget deficit. The final budget the governor and legislative ...

Budget Gimmicks Will Not Solve The State’s Fiscal Crisis Wayne Winegarden June 2025 It’s budget crunch time for Gov. Newsom and legislative leaders. The immediate problem is closing the estimated $12 billion budget shortfall for the FY2025-26 budget. Despite this serious fiscal challenge, the Governor’s budget proposal demonstrates an unseriousness ...

Covering Undocumented Immigrants Will Worsen The State’s Fiscal Crisis Wayne Winegarden May 2025 A previous Spending Watch analysis estimated the fiscal and economic impact of funding Medi-Cal benefits to undocumented immigrants. The analysis estimated that the expansion will require an additional $11.6 billion in expenditures, which will impose large economic ...

AB 4: A Bad Idea That Costs Too Much Wayne Winegarden and Nikhil Agarwal May 2025 As we noted in an earlier Spending Watch piece, growing economic volatility will likely cause revenue growth to be much weaker than expected for the upcoming FY2025-26 budget. It is, consequently, fiscally irresponsible for ...

The May Revision Should Assume A Weaker Fiscal Position for FY2025-26 Wayne Winegarden April 2025 The recently enacted tariffs are significant tax increases on consumption and production, as I discussed in a February 2025 PRI Issue Brief. These tariffs will increase costs for consumers and reduce profits for businesses both ...

SB 222 Will Weaken California’s Economy and Reduce State Revenues Wayne Winegarden and Nikhil Agarwal March 2025 The destructiveness of the Eaton and Palisades fires were unprecedented. According to the Anderson School of Management at UCLA, the recent Los Angeles wildfires caused up to $164 billion in property and capital ...

Backfilling Lost Federal Education Funding Will Cost California Dearly Wayne Winegarden February 2025 The erratic actions of the Trump Administration are undoubtedly making it more difficult for states to budget for the upcoming 2026 fiscal year. The knee-jerk reaction from many California politicians is to call for more taxes on ...